Egypt: the last days of Hosni Mubarak

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Hosni Mubarak's days are numbered, according to millions of Egyptians

Like a bat, Egypt’s strong man, Hosni Mubarak clung to power.

He was the modern Pharaoh of Egypt for 30 years, leading a mass of people, 80 million strong.

Firmly rooted on the African continent, Egypt has also, and always, been a most important part of the Middle East, as well as the indisputable leader of the Arab world.

Prior to becoming Vice President and later President, Mubarak was an air force pilot, flying jet fighters. He later became his country’s air force commander, and promoted to Air Marshall, the highest possible rank.

In 1975, former President Anwar Sadat appointed him Vice President, and when Sadat was assassinated, in 1981, Mubarak declared a state of emergency, assumed the presidency, and maintained emergency powers right down to 2011.

And then at the dawn of 2011, millions of Egyptians suddenly demanded it was time he kissed the presidency good bye. Only weeks ago, what is happening across Egypt would have been simply unthinkable.

Mubarak’s 30 years in power is partly attributed to his closeness to the United States.

There are two reasons for that – first, Egypt became the first Arab country to recognise Israel after its creation in 1948. Of course, there was a brutal war, in which Israel destroyed the Egyptian Air Force in a matter of days.

Secondly, Mubarak held off what was deemed to be extremist elements in Egypt whose rise to power would be diametrically opposed to American and Israeli peace initiatives in the Middle East.

Mubarak, although an octogenarian in his twilight years now, he has never outlived his usefulness to the western world.

That is why his imminent demise is a development not so palatable to both Israel, the United States and other countries that have invested in pushing for political peace in the Middle East.

In a larger way too, the end of Hosni Mubarak would represent an ugly precedence in the eyes of leaders and dictators across countries where western democratic tenets are yet to take roots.

The disturbing point of it all is that the political tsunami started in a relatively insignificant Tunisia, and then within days it spread across neighbouring Algeria and Egypt.

Every government and leader around the world – including those in Africa - with traits similar to Egypt is entertaining fears – fears that without warning, the masses will rise up to demand their removal – using Tunisia and Egypt as a model.

In Cairo, Mubarak is trying to fight back – he has dismissed the old government and appointed new faces to placate angry Egyptians, but it is not working.

He is usually a survivor, but every indication is that he not going to survive this one. At best, he has one in a million chance of continuing as head of state. 

The die is cast, and soon, Mubarak, regardless of what happens in Egypt would become history. He would leave a chunk of other leaders running for cover.

When all is done, Egyptians themselves would finally decide whether to remember Mubarak as a hero, or someone who laid on the wrong side of history.